I’d like to start with a disclaimer. For some reason I wasn’t feeling up to writing my usual detailed analysis today, and, instead, took the position of a spectator, just enjoying the games. This report will show some fragments of today’s games that caught my eye.

The opening round was a bit spotty. I’ll start with a peculiar case of mutual blunders in the game between GM Jan-Krzysztof Duda and GM Levon Aronian.

Nepomniachtchi could have easily added another win to his record by beating Keymer in a technical endgame.

I praised GM Le Quang Liem’s steady play in the first two days, but he couldn’t hold his nerve in the endgame at the start of Day Three. It didn’t help that his opponent was named Magnus Carlsen.

The next round brought yet another shocking upset. GM Eric Hansen defeated the World Champion with Black. Granted, Magnus blundered badly, but credit where credit’s due, Eric played his opening, the Classical Ruy Lopez, and never backed down.

In other important developments, I would mention GM Anish Giri’s steady progress. After a so-so showing in Day One, Anish gradually picked up the speed, when his third win in a row (the last one over GM Ding Liren) catapulted him into a shared second place. Ding, on the other hand, begins to show the detrimental effects of playing chess in the middle of the night. Life is tough on China’s number 1.

The last game to finish was a workman-like win by Artemiev over Aronian, which enabled the Russian to get a hold of the last qualifying spot with five rounds to go.

Round 11 started off with a grandmaster draw between Ding and Carlsen. All things considered, we should go easy on the players, as neither of them is having a fun tournament at the moment. Sometimes, a short breather is all it takes to correct the ship’s course. A big battle between Hansen and GM Nodirbek Abdusattorov nearly went in favor of the Canadian, but Eric took too much time and walked into a nasty tactic.

Riding this win, the young World Rapid Champion found himself right in the mix. His chances further improved thanks to a miraculous escape from a bad position against Ding Liren in Round 12.

In the meantime, Artemiev continued his late surge by winning a nice game over Keymer—game of the Day it is.

Vlad almost made it a perfect 4/4, but he couldn’t convert his extra pawn against GM Shakhriyar Mamedyarov in Round 12. A well-rested Carlsen caught up with him by defeating Duda with surprising ease. Didn’t Bobby Fischer say the Dragon was easy: pry open the h-file, sac, and mate?

Carlsen and Artemiev are joined in a tie for second by Keymer, who just never seems to go away and bounces back after losses. He did it again by defeating GM Hans Niemann to conclude Day Three.

Let’s take a look at the standings and estimate the players’ chances of making it to the top eight.

Obviously, Nepo is already through. His massive tally of 27 points (9.5/12 and two points ahead of the field by the old scoring system) will take care of that. Truth be told, with a bit more attention, Ian could have had two more wins today, had he not blown a large endgame advantage against Keymer and Le. Still, his speed continues to impress. Nepo breezes through literally every game, hardly spending more than five minutes of his clock. Whether his confidence holds when the playoffs begin is quite another story.

The much-publicized struggles of Carlsen should not make much difference once the playoffs begin. I have a feeling Magnus doesn’t care that much which position he’s going to have. According to news reports, the first enemy he has to defeat is Covid-19. I’m not really in a position to elaborate on medical matters, but I’m confident that a super-fit 31-year-old will pull through.

I think Artemiev has proved his class already. His only two losses came against Carlsen and Ding, and there aren’t many players left who can outplay him. My guess is that Vlad is going to be in the playoffs.

The rest is a big mess. I’d want to see Keymer, Abdusattorov, and, particularly, Hansen making it. However, experience counts in this business, and I think Giri and Aronian will be there. Not sure about Ding, though—the timezone situation is brutal. Le Quang Liem and P.R. aren’t out of it, but they are going to need a big push. Anyway, only three rounds tomorrow stand between us and all the answers.

All Games Day 3

The 2022 Champions Chess Tour’s Airthings Masters runs February 19-27 on chess24. The preliminary phase is a 16-player rapid (15+10) round-robin. The top eight players advance to a knockout that consists of one four-game rapid match during the quarterfinals and semifinals and two four-game rapid matches during the final.  Play advance to blitz (5+3) and armageddon (White has five minutes, Black has four with no increment) tiebreaks only if a knockout match ends in a tie. The total prize fund of the event is $150,000, with $750 for each win and $250 for each draw in the preliminaries.